Fibonacci Retracements are places where a strong trend is set back temporarily by a smaller reverse trend, called a retracement. Theoretically, the size of the retracement can be predicted or used to predict the size of the larger trend which resumes afterwards through Fibonacci numbers. The theory behind Fibonacci Retracements is that complex systems will exhibit orderly behavior to some extent. The so-called random walk of stock prices has been shown on occasion to fit into the parameters of Fibonacci lines and arcs.
If a retracement has a length that proportionally fits within certain parameters in comparison to the uptrend that preceded it, some traders attempt to predict the size of the uptrend that will come afterwards using Fibonacci numbers. The most popular retracement percentages to use are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 100%.
Fibonacci numbers are part of the Fibonacci sequence, where the two previous numbers are added together to calculate the next number in the sequence. The ratio of two Fibonacci numbers is the Golden Ratio, or 1.61803398875, which has been used since ancient times as the perfect proportion in architecture and other design. The Golden Ratio is also known as Phi (pronounced “fee”). Because Fibonacci numbers are found throughout the natural world, they have been integrated into some traders’ strategies for market analysis.
Modern computing power has uncovered plentiful examples of the Golden Ratio in nature, from Nautilus shells to musical harmonics, as well as in mathematical fractal patterns. Fibonacci numbers are related to the study of chaos theory, which seeks to find order in complex systems. Since the markets have so many variables, but no lack of data, they are an excellent place to search for Fibonacci patterns.
Fibonacci retracements are particularly popular among speculative derivatives traders, who look to exploit small margins. Any methodology that even slightly increases their chances of success even slightly warrants further exploration, making these results appear more dramatic than other results.
But Fibonacci filters for trading signals are, like all technical indicators, imperfect at best. The use of Fibonacci lines in trading is still in its early stages, but ever-growing computing power available to traders increases their ability to find the common threads that will make this investment theory more usable, accurate, and reliable. These include artificial intelligence services from Tickeron, which provide traders with powerful ways to evaluate trade ideas, analyze signals, and provide key confirmation to help investors make rational, emotionless, and effective trading decisions.