Nvidia is a leading developer of graphics processing units... Show more
NVIDIA's Q4 FY2026 earnings, covering the period ended January 25, 2026, cap a transformative fiscal year fueled by AI adoption. As the dominant provider of GPUs for data centers, NVIDIA has seen explosive demand from hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta investing hundreds of billions in AI infrastructure. This report will validate if Blackwell chip ramps and sovereign AI deals sustain momentum amid supply constraints and U.S. export curbs to China. For investors, it offers insights into full-year FY2026 performance—potentially exceeding $210 billion in revenue—and guidance signaling sustained AI capex into FY2027, influencing semiconductor peers and tech valuations broadly.
Wall Street anticipates Q4 revenue of $65.6 billion, up 67% from $39.3 billion in Q4 FY2025, per 43 analysts. This tops NVIDIA's own Q3 guidance of $65 billion (±2%) and reflects first-three-quarters revenue of roughly $147-150 billion. Consensus non-GAAP EPS is $1.52 (42 analysts), a 71% rise from $0.89 last year, supported by gross margins near 75%.
In Q3 FY2026 (ended October 26, 2025), revenue hit a record $57 billion (+62% YoY, +22% QoQ), with Data Center at $51.2 billion (+66% YoY), beating estimates. EPS was $1.30, topping $1.24 consensus. Historically, NVIDIA has beaten EPS estimates in 10 straight quarters, averaging 7-8% surprises, often sparking 5-10% stock gains.
Investors watch Data Center growth, Blackwell production ramps, gross margins (expected 75%), and FY2027 outlook amid $600 billion hyperscaler AI capex projections.
Heading into earnings, NVDA trades around $189, up 40% YTD but off October highs near $212 amid profit-taking and China concerns. Options imply ±7-8% volatility, consistent with historical post-earnings swings. Sentiment is bullish, with NVIDIA beating estimates recently driving gains, though Q3 results saw a next-day dip despite beats due to guidance scrutiny. Key risks include supply delays or softer China demand; beats on revenue/EPS, especially Data Center, could propel shares higher, while guidance shortfalls risk pullbacks.
Post-Q4, focus shifts to FY2027 guidance, where analysts project $326 billion revenue (+53% from FY2026 estimates), driven by Rubin platform launches and expanded AI factories. NVIDIA's Q3 outlook highlighted $500 billion in committed Blackwell/Rubin revenue through 2026-end, underscoring hyperscaler commitments: Amazon's $200 billion, Microsoft's rising capex, Meta's aggressive spend. Sovereign AI initiatives in Saudi Arabia and Europe add tailwinds.
Monitor Blackwell supply ramps—CEO Jensen Huang noted sold-out cloud GPUs—and gross margin stability amid inventory dynamics. U.S.-China tensions persist, with H20 chip restrictions potentially shaving $2-3 billion quarterly, offset by compliant products. Upcoming catalysts include CES Rubin demos, GTC conference updates, and Q1 FY2027 results in May 2026. Broader dynamics: AI inference shift boosting H100/Blackwell utilization, competition from AMD/Intel, and power/cooling bottlenecks in data centers. Balanced capex growth from cloud giants signals multi-year runway, with FY2027 EPS eyed near $7.70.
Investors should track operating expenses (~$5 billion non-GAAP Q4) for R&D scaling and free cash flow amid $30+ billion quarterly Data Center runs.
The RSI Indicator for NVDA moved out of oversold territory on February 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 20 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 20 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NVDA just turned positive on February 10, 2026. Looking at past instances where NVDA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a +1 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVDA advanced for three days, in of 360 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
NVDA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 64 cases where NVDA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on February 11, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NVDA as a result. In of 75 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
NVDA moved below its 50-day moving average on February 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NVDA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on February 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVDA declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NVDA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: NVDA's P/B Ratio (37.313) is slightly higher than the industry average of (9.813). P/E Ratio (45.250) is within average values for comparable stocks, (169.843). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.706) is also within normal values, averaging (1.754). NVDA has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.019). P/S Ratio (24.038) is also within normal values, averaging (34.073).
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a manufacturer of computer graphics processors, chipsets, and related multimedia software
Industry Semiconductors