BABA Alibaba Group Holding Limited Forecast, Technical & Fundamental Analysis

BABA's Indicator enters downward trend

The Aroon Indicator for BABA entered a downward trend on July 17, 2025. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 234 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In of the 234 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for BABA moved out of overbought territory on July 24, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 24 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 24 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on August 01, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BABA as a result. In of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BABA turned negative on August 04, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BABA declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 58 cases where BABA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

BABA moved above its 50-day moving average on July 17, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for BABA crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on July 24, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BABA advanced for three days, in of 263 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

BABA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BABA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.042) is normal, around the industry mean (4.638). P/E Ratio (16.131) is within average values for comparable stocks, (46.160). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.263) is also within normal values, averaging (1.692). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.081) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.096) is also within normal values, averaging (6.566).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BABA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock worse than average.