BABA Alibaba Group Holding Limited Forecast, Technical & Fundamental Analysis

BABA in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on May 15, 2025

BABA moved below its 50-day moving average on May 15, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 46 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 59 cases where BABA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 16, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BABA as a result. In of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BABA declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

BABA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 12, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BABA's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 36 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BABA just turned positive on April 23, 2025. Looking at past instances where BABA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The 10-day moving average for BABA crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 14, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BABA advanced for three days, in of 263 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 159 cases where BABA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BABA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.102) is normal, around the industry mean (4.442). P/E Ratio (16.601) is within average values for comparable stocks, (45.745). BABA's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.244) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.559). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.051) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.157) is also within normal values, averaging (5.601).

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BABA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock worse than average.