ALRM Alarm.com Holdings Forecast, Technical & Fundamental Analysis

ALRM sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line

ALRM saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on March 28, 2025. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 48 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on March 18, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ALRM as a result. In of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The 50-day moving average for ALRM moved below the 200-day moving average on March 05, 2025. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ALRM declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for ALRM entered a downward trend on April 01, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ALRM's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 27 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ALRM advanced for three days, in of 297 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

ALRM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ALRM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.163) is normal, around the industry mean (30.825). P/E Ratio (46.510) is within average values for comparable stocks, (159.055). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.422) is also within normal values, averaging (2.727). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.409) is also within normal values, averaging (59.113).

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ALRM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.