$ATXS, $CBAY, $ARDX, $VKTX: Metabolic Biotech Stocks Surge 10.24% in a Week
In the past week, biotechnology companies focusing on metabolic treatments have shown a notable performance increase of +10.24%. However, a deeper analysis reveals a negative outlook for these companies, as indicated by various technical indicators and market trends. Here's a comprehensive breakdown of key elements affecting this sector.
Group Tickers: The companies within this metabolic biotech theme include Intercept Pharmaceuticals (ICPT), Astria Therapeutics (ATXS), CymaBay Therapeutics (CBAY), Ardelyx (ARDX), Viking Therapeutics (VKTX), Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL), and Rhythm Pharmaceuticals (RYTM).
Stock Outlook: Despite the recent positive performance, the 15-indicator Stock Fear & Greed Index suggests a negative outlook. Tickeron predicts a further decline of over 4.00% within the next month, with a confidence level of 72%. The daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes over the past month was 2.46 to 1, reinforcing the prevailing negative sentiment.
Market Capitalization: The average market capitalization for the group stands at 1.6 billion dollars. The range is broad, with MDGL holding the highest valuation at 3.9 billion dollars and ATXS being the least valued at 171 million dollars.
Price Movements: While the average weekly price growth was 5.21%, the monthly and quarterly averages were more substantial at 22.14% and 72.85%, respectively. Notable mentions include ARDX experiencing the highest price growth at 31.94%, while RYTM saw a decline of -3.22%.
Noteworthy Events:
- Viking Therapeutics (VKTX): Notably, VKTX emerged as a top weekly gainer with a +9.32% jump.
- Ardelyx (ARDX): In a previous week, ARDX also saw a significant weekly gain of +10.45%, with expectations of an uptrend continuation.
- CymaBay Therapeutics (CBAY): CBAY, on the other hand, was a top loser for the week, declining by -7.1%.
Volume Analysis: Volume growth across the group was robust, with average weekly, monthly, and quarterly volume growth rates of 27.1%, 43.89%, and 260.1%, respectively. Notably, there were sporadic instances of substantial volume spikes, such as Astria Therapeutics experiencing a record-breaking daily growth of 531% of the 65-Day Volume Moving Average.
Individual Stock Analysis:
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ATXS (Astria Therapeutics):
- Aroon Indicator: The Aroon Indicator for ATXS shows a bullish signal, indicating a potential upward move. Historical data reveals a 90% success rate in similar situations, with a recent +61% uptrend.
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CBAY (CymaBay Therapeutics):
- MACD Histogram: CBAY's MACD Histogram turned negative, suggesting a bearish outlook. Historical analysis indicates an 81% likelihood of a downward move, despite a recent uptrend of +15%.
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ARDX (Ardelyx):
- Aroon Indicator: ARDX's Aroon Indicator signals a likely upward move. With an 87% historical success rate, the recent +63% uptrend strengthens the potential for further positive movement.
Summary: While recent performance figures suggest positive momentum in the biotech metabolic sector, caution is warranted. The negative outlook, as indicated by the Stock Fear & Greed Index and Tickeron's predictions, coupled with sporadic volume spikes and individual stock signals, emphasizes the volatility and uncertainty in this space. Investors should closely monitor these developments and consider a diversified approach to mitigate risks in this dynamic market.
ATXS sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line
ATXS saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on November 12, 2024. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 46 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 11, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ATXS as a result. In of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
ATXS moved below its 50-day moving average on November 12, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ATXS crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 13, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ATXS declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ATXS advanced for three days, in of 277 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
ATXS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 225 cases where ATXS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ATXS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.383) is normal, around the industry mean (14.905). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (98.894). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.944). ATXS has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.012). P/S Ratio (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (217.940).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ATXS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
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General Information
a developer of new medicines for the treatment of cardiovascular, metabolic and inflammatory diseases
Industry Biotechnology